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Overbetting

It is applied when you are recklessly investing amounts of money over those that are usually handled. It can be understood as overbetting to bet too much money in a period of time as in a certain sporting event.

Now that all the leagues start and we have a multitude of games every weekend, overbetting is a danger that is more than present in all the tipsters since the wide spectrum of meetings offered by the bookmakers make tempting the options of entering several markets and different bets without taking into account the phenomenon that we will describe next.

Overbetting is a term that comes from poker and its coinage was necessary because of the constant appearance of the practice of it. In poker overbetting is known as the use of a stake (bet amount) greater than recommended due to the mathematical possibility of winning a hand.

Example

Suppose that in a poker hand between two players, before drawing the last card from the table (river), a player who has a ladder project and has a 30% chance of completing it in the last card. We have that his opponent bets something that for him is a stake 5 and our player with a ladder project sees it.

I would be making a bad bet since he is playing a stake 5 to win 5 or lose 5 units with a 30% chance so he would be making a bad bet for overbetting. I would be playing as if their chances were 50-50 when in reality they are 30% -70%, which in the medium-long term we know would be insured losses.

Overbetting in betting

In betting, overbetting occurs in the same way when finding a value we do not adjust the stake well and we exceed the optimal stake that should be bet on that value, that is, we find a value of 10% and we apply a stake 3. We would be playing more than the amount due because the options that the bet turns in our favor are lower than what we are giving them although that bet independently has value.

There is also a kind of overbetting when a tipster makes more than enough bets because he bets several markets that he has not studied or because he only sees good and bad bets, entering all the good he sees.

Next you can see a clear example of overbetting due to excess of bets regardless of stake and odds.

The tipster 1 bets on all the good bets he sees at the average share @ 1.8. During the season let’s say that he has made 1000 bets with a success of 57%, obtaining a profit of € 78 and a final yield of 2.6%.
The tipster 2 studies his bets a little more; has seen the same 1000 bets as the tiptser 1 but has discarded 600 of those possible bets and thus increasing its percentage of hits to 63%.

It does not seem a very significant amount in the percentage of correct answers, but tiptser 2 has taken 1800 units less getting double the benefit by increasing only 6% his percentage of correct answers with respect to tiptser 1 and his yield is in a good 13 ,4%.

Conclusion

In summary we must be very careful when allocating a correct stake to a value to avoid falling into overbetting, just as we can not enter all bets without studying the confrontations since assuming much less risk we can obtain a much greater profit and yield.